Personal Economics 101

Regional manufacturing data misses (Nov. 16, 2020) The Empire Manufacturing Index, a measure of activity in the New York region, unexpectedly declined to 6.3 in November from 10.5 in October, compared to the Bloomberg forecast of an increase to 13.5. However, a reading above zero denoting expansion. The report marks the fifth-straight month of expansion, as employment growth accelerated but the expansion in new orders decelerated. Another Covid-19 vaccine on track (Nov 16, 2020) Moderna Inc. (MRNA $98) rallied after announcing that preliminary analysis of Phase-3 trial results of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate met statistical criteria with a efficacy rate of 94.5%. MRNA said based on these interim safety and efficacy data, it intends to submit for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the coming weeks and anticipates having the EUA informed by the final safety and efficacy data. MRNA also said it plans to submit applications for author...

The Danish study on the effectiveness of masks – or lack thereof – in protecting us from COVID-19 was just published yesterday in the Annals of Internal Medicine . Researchers in Denmark reported on Wednesday that surgical masks did not protect the wearers against infection with the coronavirus in a large randomized clinical trial. But the findings conflict with those from a number of other studies, experts said, and is not likely to alter public health recommendations in the United States. The study , published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, did not contradict growing evidence that masks can prevent transmission of the virus from wearer to others. But the conclusion is at odds with the view that masks also protect the wearers — a position endorsed just last week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Critics were quick to note the study’s limitations, among them that the design depended heavily on participants reporting their own test results and behavior, at a time w...

 The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index showed homebuilder sentiment in November unexpectedly improved to another record high, jumping to 90, versus forecasts calling for it to match October's 85 level. A level north of 50 depicts positive conditions. The index notched a record high for the third month in a row and the NAHB noted that this reflects that housing is a bright spot for the economy. "However, affordability remains an ongoing concern, as construction costs continue to rise and interest rates are expected to move higher as more positive news emerges on the coronavirus vaccine front," the NAHB added. Housing starts for October rose 4.9% month-over-month (m/m) to an annual pace of 1,530,000 units, above the Bloomberg forecast of 1,460,000 units, and compared to September's upwardly-revised pace of 1,459,000 units. However, building permits, one of the leading indicators tracked by the Conference Board as it is a gauge of future c...