AIER's Leading Indicators index falls to the lowest level since the recession.
AIER's Leading Indicators index dropped 17 points to 25 in March, the lowest level since June 2009. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index also fell, to 83 and 67,,, March is the third consecutive month with readings for the Leading Indicators index below the neutral 50 threshold. The duration and severity of the declines justify significant concern regarding the durability of the economic expansion.
However, while the majority of the leading indicators are trending down, the pace of decline is generally mild, suggesting the path of economic activity may be more similar to a slowdown than a recession. Disruptions to economic activity and ongoing delays in the timely publishing of some economic data used in the calculation of the AIER business cycle indicators, both caused by the government shutdown, further cloud the picture. It will likely take another month or two before a reliable assessment can be made regarding the likelihood of a recession.
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