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Thursday, March 31, 2022

Bad Economics; Bad Energy Policy

(Updated at 2:13 PM CDT) The Biden Administration, and Democrats in general it looks like, just don't understand good governmental policy or basic economics. The Federal Reserve is no better, and may yet push us into a recession, at the least. 

The Biden administration plans to release around 180M barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in what be the largest release from stockpile since it was created in 1975. WTI crude futures tumbled 6.7% to $100.53 on the news, The coming SPR decision would likely see 1M barrels released daily over the course of six months, but analysts are still debating the benefits and whether it would put a dent in the inflationary forces seen in the current environment.

"Stocks of strategic oil have a limit and flows of commercial oil do not. Flows that stop are a bigger problem than strategic stocks can solve over time," said Kevin Book, energy policy analyst at ClearView Energy Partners. "Historically, SPR releases have temporarily sent oil prices lower and are then followed by higher prices as the market prices in insufficient supply," added Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests. "It is likely that oil prices rise after an initial temporary pullback, and that the SPR may have to be refilled at even higher prices."

According to data from AAA, the national average for a gallon of gas currently stands at $4.23 per gallon, down a penny from a week earlier, but up from $2.87 one year ago. OPEC+ is also scheduled to meet today, but is expected to stick to plans of boosting production by another 400K barrels a day in May despite U.S. pressure to pump more, while the IEA has called an emergency ministerial meeting for Friday to discuss oil supply and coordinate a global release by other countries.

Washington has released oil from the SPR roughly two dozen times, but most of them have been on a small scale (around 1M barrels) and in the wake of local disasters or emergencies. Over the past six months, however, the Biden administration has coordinated two mega releases of 30M and 50M barrels, while the latest 180M would be a third. Prior to these, big drawdowns from the SPR were a rare event, only coming after supply disruptions during the Libyan civil war in 2011 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The SPR currently holds 568.3M barrels of oil, its lowest level since May 2002.

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