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Weekly Market Wrap and a Challenge to You

When I was in the Air Force during the First Gulf War, George H.W. Bush was my Commander-in-Chief. Rest in peace. He was a good C-in-C. Second only to Ronald Reagan, who took a demoralized military and made us proud to wear our uniforms again.

President Bush had four principals he followed as Commander if he had to go to war: 1) It was a last resort, 2) Form an overwhelming collusion, 3) Go to war with overwhelming force, and 4) Have an exit strategy. He stuck to all four. It was called the Powell Doctrine

In other news this week, markets were up. Investor's Business Daily called it the best weekly raise since March. They changed their market watch from "market in correction" to "confirmed uptrend." This indicator is worth watching, but aren't the only indicators out there. 

IndexNov 23Nov 30+/-+/- %
S&P 500
- 103.71+ 4.93
+ 159.03+ 2.32
+ 1252.51+5.15

Just because IBD changes tune, don't throw caution to the wind. Dip your toes into the water first. Follow your plan. You do have a plan, right? If you don't, keep your money buried in the back yard. It will be safer; though inflation will burn it all up in 10 years. Think of this: You put $1,000 in a bucket in your back yard 10 years ago. That buys you about $800 worth of stuff today. That's not my plan. My plan is for my $1,000 today to be worth $1,800 (assuming 6% growth) -- and that's without saving any extra. 

If I add just $1,200 to that each year: $18,000. Now let's say that I have $1,000, I'm going to earn the average market rate of about 8 percent a year, and I'm going to save $5,000 a year. Know what that's worth after 20 years? About $200,000. 

You feel me now? Pass by the Starbucks and start now.

Here's the overall market as of yesterday. I don't think there is anything wrong with waiting until all the bullshit politics are over this weekend and the markets have a chance to shake it out. 

But the bottom line: If here are more buyers, the market goes up. If more want to sell, the market goes down. I can make no recommendations. Neither legally nor ethically, excpet for this: If you're in the market, stay. If you're out, dip a toe in. 

SPY Weekly. Click for larger version

What I'm reading today:

Wall Street Breakfast: What moved markets this week
Investopedia: The importance of a trade plan
Barrons: The Best Reason for Optimism? The Meeting of Trump and Xi

Investor's Business Daily: Pelosi: Republicans Only Win Elections When They Cheat

I challenge you to watch this video five times over the next five days. That's 10 minutes a day.


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After Thursday and Friday, it might seem the markets are down, but the weekly numbers tell a different story, with the three major indices up for the week. The Nasdaq, with its tech exposure, had the smallest increase. The tech sector is obviously under recent pressure. 

IndexNov 2Nov 9+/-%S&P 5002,723.062,781.01+ 57.95+ 2.12%Nasdaq7,356.997,406.90+ 49.91+ 0.67%DOW 3025,270.8325,989.30+ 718.47+ 2.84%
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The weekly chart of the SPY still indicates a long position in the broader market. (The blue line is the 34-week moving average; the red is the 13-week moving average).

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The U.S. is now the largest oil producer in the world, according to the EIA, producing some 15 million BOE per day, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia. (Remember back when Jimmy Carter said in 1979 the answer to our energy problems was to wear a warmer sweater...but you probably don't. He actually said this on national TV).

The United States is the top oil-producing country in the world, with an average of 14.86 million b/d, which accounts for 15.3% of the world's production. This is down from 15.12 million b/d in 2015, but it was enough to land the United States in the No. 1 spot, which it has held for the past four years running. (Source: Investopedia.)

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