What's happening today?

(Update at 9:30 AM CDT. OK. My hour is up. What happened? The QQQ is up 0.04 percent. Still no direction, in my mind.)

Well, if I knew the answer to that question, I'd be a billionaire.

But in all seriously, we can look at certain things and maybe make an educated guess. My guess the market will open lower today.

Market futures in the S&P 500 (ES), the NASDAQ (NQ) and the Dow (YM) are all showing weaker openings to the underlying indexes. The blue line represents the last close. So you will how ask me how much lower? How in the he frak should I know?

I don't normally trade until after about the first hour anyway unless something just jumps right off the page, and that doesn't happen often. Let the crazies have their fun first.

Here's the NASDAQ (as represented by the QQQ) AT 8:03 AM CST. Note that all this can turn faster, one way other the other, at a moment's notice. That's what makes it fun. Unless it doesn't for you, then I have another, more sedate way for you to invest.

Buy ETFs on the broad market and wait 30 years and then have your money run out in before you die. Or turn your money over to an advisor, who will collect frees and do no better. I haven't found one yet who can claim to beat the market. The last one "guaranteed six percent". A monkey could do better. Read a "Random Walk Down Wall Street" if you don't believe me. SIX PERCENT!!!! Even my wife, who doesn't know anything about money, rolled her eyes.

Any way, back to the chart as of 8:03.

Yesterday I wrote about using trends as your friend, until there are not. Today I'll start of the rest of the steps that might make you a better investor. Maybe 10 percent of you. The other probably won't follow the rules, based onstatistical studies.

Armed with a little knowledge and the right behavior, you can beat 90 percent of financial advisors all on your own.

Be that guy.

Comments

What happened when a Trump Supporter Challenged Me About the Wall

Vicky Alvear Schecter wrote in Medium | Poltics on Dec. 27, 2018 using her headline above. I thought it was pretty well written -- at least she made an attempt to keep her liberal bias out of it -- regardless of a few illogical fallacies.

But she does make an attempt, in an effort to avoid her liberal bias, as she ponders "...in order not to be accused by bias, I explained that I would only use conservative sources to prove my point."

To me, that's bias to start out with that premise. And I believe her premise is that she is against the wall. That's her stance. But she makes some good points, but some are skewed, even though she attempt to take a "conservative" approach, even by citing some "conservative" sources in her footnotes.

Here's the first problem: if she wanted to avoid bias, why not just stick to the the historical facts as written (when you can find them without bias), and not concern oneself with bias. "I must reject that becau…

Weekly wrap for Nov 9

After Thursday and Friday, it might seem the markets are down, but the weekly numbers tell a different story, with the three major indices up for the week. The Nasdaq, with its tech exposure, had the smallest increase. The tech sector is obviously under recent pressure.

IndexNov 2Nov 9+/-%S&P 5002,723.062,781.01+ 57.95+ 2.12%Nasdaq7,356.997,406.90+ 49.91+ 0.67%DOW 3025,270.8325,989.30+ 718.47+ 2.84%
Over the last 12 months, the Dow is up 10.77 percent, the SP 500 up 7.6 percent, and the Nasdaq up 9.7 percent.

The weekly chart of the SPY still indicates a long position in the broader market. (The blue line is the 34-week moving average; the red is the 13-week moving average).

While the U.S. economy still seems to be just fine from most reports, investors seemed to worry about a couple of things on Thursday and Friday: 1) The Eurozone, 2) trade with China, and 3) the Fed and interest rates. Another topic of interest has been oil.

First, it seems that the Fed has really not indicated …

U.S. Top Oil Producer, Thanks to Obama

\ You read that right.

The U.S. is now the largest oil producer in the world, according to the EIA, producing some 15 million BOE per day, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia. (Remember back when Jimmy Carter said in 1979 the answer to our energy problems was to wear a warmer sweater...but you probably don't. He actually said this on national TV).

The United States is the top oil-producing country in the world, with an average of 14.86 million b/d, which accounts for 15.3% of the world's production. This is down from 15.12 million b/d in 2015, but it was enough to land the United States in the No. 1 spot, which it has held for the past four years running. (Source: Investopedia.)

Guess who takes credit for it? Granted, this increase in production began in 2012, but only because of private industry and the fact that the price of oil was at nearly all-time highs. And it dipped in 2016 because of Obama's anti-oil policies!

But here he is again:

Former President Barack Obama sure l…

personal economics 101

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