If that seems like a cop out, it's really not. There is no magic crystal ball. For all the talking heads (experts) on TV and in financial columns, for all their predictions, they are really not better than you are. YOU CAN MANAGE YOUR OWN MONEY JUST AS WELL IF YOU HAVE THE BASIC KNOWLEDGE.
Here's the latest chart on the SPY, the ETF which most closely tracks the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 and is the most highly traded.
The blue line represents an all time high and represents late 2012 through Friday, April 10.
Here's the SPY from about 2005 until 2012.
Here's another interesting look. The SPY from 1880 until now, represented in 2017 real dollars.
Another study, follow by Warren Buffett, is called the Case-
The same index 2 months ago
The index is up about 1.7 points, which indicates the market is even more over-valued than two months ago.
My take from all this. Just pay attention. You don't want to get caught with your portfolio heavily weighted in stocks (or maybe even bonds for that matter) when the market turns. Markets fall faster than they go up. In a near-future post, I'll explain moving averages, which is a good tool for the average investor for measuring (note I didn't say predict) trends. And this you can do in 15 minutes a day or less (or even weekly, as weekly movement can be just as dandy.
You'll never pick the very highest highs, or the very lowest lows, but why ride out a 50 percent loss of your portfolio. Historically, it takes 6 or 7 years just to break even again.
Post a Comment
Thanks for the comment. Will get back to you as soon as convenient, if necessary.