Saturday, July 24, 2021

Weekly Market Alert: New All-Time Highs

When I wrote on July 19 about the need to avoid a panic, little did I know that my expectation that the market would not plunge into a correct would come true. Stocks rose Friday for the fourth straight session after a rough start to the week, with most major groups moving higher. 

The Dow closed above 35,000 for the first time ever, bringing its 2021 gain to 14%, and rising 1% for the week despite dropping more than 700 points on Monday. The S&P 500 rose 2% for the week and the Nasdaq Composite added 2.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to 1.29% on Friday, easing concerns about the economy that the bond market sparked on Monday when the 10-year yield fell to a five-month low 1.13%. Still, a 1.29% yield on the 10-year is not very good.

The different indexes surged at the bell and held onto the gains as investors looked ahead to what's expected to be blowout earnings from big tech giants next week. The July FOMC Meeting gets underway on Tuesday and market participants will be paying keen attention to hints that the Fed's bond purchasing will begin to taper sooner than later at the Fed's announcement on Wednesday. That could cause some volatility in the market. Finally, while big cap tech stocks have soared into earnings, don't be too surprised if traders sell the news. I'd wait for prices to settle down after earnings before buying at these levels.

You still need an exit plan. From my point of view, it should be a cautionary time for investors, as explained in this Seeking Alpha article, Investors' Risk Appetite Is At An All-Time High. That Could Be A Problem.

This chart shows the NASDAQ movements for the year 2021. Note the three "dips" in the market. As I wrote on July 19, these are normal actions. In a bear market, you'd see the opposite, with little surges during the downturn. Note that the highs keep getting higher (higher highs). This indicates market strength. 

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