Skip to main content

Preparing for a Recession

I was asked the question on Quora: Is there an impending recession in 2020, and if so, how do we prepare for it?

Here's my answer:

While there is a lot of talk about a recession coming in 2020 or 2021 or 2022, no one really knows for sure. Some of this excitement is over the yield inversion, but while all recessions follow a yield inversion, not all yield inversions precede a recession. So it’s a correlation, not a causation.

However, you should always be prepared. I like to think one should hope for the best, plan for the worst. By following basic principles of personal finance, you should be able to get through any recession, or any hard times that may come your way, allowing an event of this kind to be not so bad.
  1. Have a financial plan and follow it. Use a budget. Create a net worth statement. Always use a budget. This is important and a basic step that a lot of people don’t follow.
  2. Have a budget and follow it. Did I repeat myself? Yes. It’s that important. How to create a budget.
  3. Have an emergency fund of 3 months (or better) in living expenses. I finally built mine to 6 months. I sleep well at night. Do not think that credit cards can be used for emergencies. This will lead to more troubles.
  4. Get out of debt and stay out of debt. Consumer debt will kill any household financial plan, especially if you lose a job or there’s a recession. The only debt you should have is a mortgage on your house.
  5. Once you’ve covered 1 through 4, save/invest 10 percent of your income in a retirement fund.
  6. You can find more information on this blog. 


Popular posts from this blog

What happened when a Trump Supporter Challenged Me About the Wall

Vicky Alvear Schecter wrote in Medium | Poltics on Dec. 27, 2018 using her headline above. I thought it was pretty well written -- at least she made an attempt to keep her liberal bias out of it -- regardless of a few illogical fallacies

But she does make an attempt, in an effort to avoid her liberal bias, as she ponders  " order not to be accused by bias, I explained that I would only use conservative sources to prove my point."

To me, that's bias to start out with that premise. And I believe her premise is that she is against the wall. That's her stance. But she makes some good points, but some are skewed, even though she attempt to take a "conservative" approach, even by citing some "conservative" sources in her footnotes.

Here's the first problem: if she wanted to avoid bias, why not just stick to the the historical facts as written (when you can find them without bias), and not concern oneself with bias. "I must reject that becau…

Weekly wrap for Nov 9

After Thursday and Friday, it might seem the markets are down, but the weekly numbers tell a different story, with the three major indices up for the week. The Nasdaq, with its tech exposure, had the smallest increase. The tech sector is obviously under recent pressure. 

IndexNov 2Nov 9+/-%S&P 5002,723.062,781.01+ 57.95+ 2.12%Nasdaq7,356.997,406.90+ 49.91+ 0.67%DOW 3025,270.8325,989.30+ 718.47+ 2.84%
Over the last 12 months, the Dow is up 10.77 percent, the SP 500 up 7.6 percent, and the Nasdaq up 9.7 percent.  

The weekly chart of the SPY still indicates a long position in the broader market. (The blue line is the 34-week moving average; the red is the 13-week moving average).

While the U.S. economy still seems to be just fine from most reports, investors seemed to worry about a couple of things on Thursday and Friday: 1) The Eurozone, 2) trade with China, and 3) the Fed and interest rates. Another topic of interest has been oil. 

First, it seems that the Fed has really not indicated …

U.S. Top Oil Producer, Thanks to Obama

\ You read that right.

The U.S. is now the largest oil producer in the world, according to the EIA, producing some 15 million BOE per day, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia. (Remember back when Jimmy Carter said in 1979 the answer to our energy problems was to wear a warmer sweater...but you probably don't. He actually said this on national TV).

The United States is the top oil-producing country in the world, with an average of 14.86 million b/d, which accounts for 15.3% of the world's production. This is down from 15.12 million b/d in 2015, but it was enough to land the United States in the No. 1 spot, which it has held for the past four years running. (Source: Investopedia.)

Guess who takes credit for it? Granted, this increase in production began in 2012, but only because of private industry and the fact that the price of oil was at nearly all-time highs. And it dipped in 2016 because of Obama's anti-oil policies! 

But here he is again

Former President Barack Obama sure l…