Personal Economics 101

Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 4.43 million for the week ending April 18, marking the fifth consecutive week of massive, record-shattering layoffs, and dwarfing the previous high of 695,000 in October 1982. However, on a positive note, the latest tally is the third week of declines in the number of initial claims since the 6.87 million claims during the week of March 27. During the Great Recession in 2008-09, total job losses were 8.8 million over 25 months versus the current 5-week total of 26.5 million initial claims. The unprecedented flood in claims is the leading edge of a tsunami of negative economic statistics that reflect the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and the drastic policy reactions implemented to contain the spread. Sales of new single-family homes tumbled 15.4 percent in March to a 627,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. Sales are now down 9.5 percent from a year ago. Sales fell in all four regions tallied: sales plunged 41.5 percent in the North...

Wall Street tumbled for a second straight day on Tuesday as a collapse in U.S. oil prices and glum forecasts by companies worsened fears of a deep economic downturn. All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes fell 1.6% or more, with energy sliding for the seventh time in eight sessions a day after the WTI contract crashed below zero as oil traders ran out of storage for May deliveries. With the collapse spilling into June futures contracts, equity investors became wary of the extent of the economic damage from sweeping lockdown measures that have halted business activity and sparked millions of layoffs. The May Crude Oil Contract took a destructive hit April 20 as the contract traded into negative territory. Crude Oil plunged to all-time lows surpassing levels not seen since 1983. A variety of factors contributed to the heavy selling pressure and the lack of demand remains a major concern. The Light Sweet Crude Oil May 2020, (CLK20) contract traded well below the $0 price point, dropping ...

Rep. Ocasio-Cortez Cheers Oil Futures Price Plunge, Then Deletes Tweet : “You absolutely love to see it,” Ocasio-Cortez tweeted, responding to a tweet on the unprecedented crude oil price drop resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Sixty percent of Democrats blame Trump for the coronavirus: Poll : A majority of Democrats blame President Trump for the nationwide outbreak of the coronavirus , according to a new poll. A total of 60% of Democrats reported that Trump is more to blame than China and the World Health Organization for the pandemic, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey. Seventy-one percent of Republicans said they do not blame Trump. NYC Mayor Shocked To Hear Newly Released “Empty The Jails” Inmates Commit New Crimes :  The “empty the jails” initiative has really been picking up steam in cities around the country. This is particularly true of New York City, where Mayor Bill de Blasio authorized the release of ...

The collapse of oil The front-month May WTI contract plunged as much as 23% overnight to under $15/bbl, the lowest level since March 1999, after losing almost a fifth of its value last week. Production cuts agreed by top producers are barely making a dent in the demand destruction wrought by COVID-19 as the world rapidly runs out of places to store crude. While the May contract expires tomorrow, adding to reasons for prices to crater, the June WTI contract also fell more than 7% to $23/bbl (the spread is usually around $0.50 - it's now around $8-10). Besides the crude slump, U.S. stock index futures are off by 1% as investors look ahead to a busy week for earnings (nearly a fifth of S&P 500 companies report) and gauge the early financial effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Retail Sales US retail sales fell a record 8.7% in March, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The previous record slump for any month was a 3.8% fall in November 2008. The decline in retail...

Watching the media deal with the daily White House briefings reminds the country that we have never had journalism of this low character before—not in the acrimony over the Founding, not in the furor during the Civil War, not even in the age of yellow journalism at the turn of the 20th century. Reporters do not wish to transmit knowledge to the public that might aid in confronting the virus. They do not even wish to clarify murky statements from public officials to ensure Americans know exactly what the government wants them to do. Instead, journalists during White House briefings fixate on two agendas. One is to goad the president into saying something sloppy, by repeatedly suggesting that in reacting to the virus, he was in error, that he is cruel and heartless, or that he is dangerous. That gotcha obsession explains why the media can call Trump a xenophobe and racist for issuing a travel ban against China—contrary to the earlier advice of WHO, the Centers for Disease Control...

Update: April 19, 2020: Pelosi Is Pushing a Coronavirus Lie Even Though It's Been Debunked by Victor David Hanson, PhD Stanford University (April 16, 2020) As the COVID-19 outbreak begins to reach its zenith, it remains unclear whether the measures taken to stem its tide will prove sufficient, insufficient, or an overreaction. What is certain, however, is that a number of individuals and entities have behaved shamefully and demonstrated no capacity for leadership or usefulness in this moment. Nancy Pelosi: Gone are the mythologies that Nancy Pelosi was a pragmatic liberal voice of reason among the otherwise polarizing American Left, honed after years of paying her dues to the Democratic Party, as the mother of five dutifully ascended the party’s cursus honorum. It does not matter whether her political and ethical decline was a result of her deep pathological hatred of Donald Trump. Who cares that her paranoia arose over the so-called “Squad” that might align with socialis...

by Gary D. Halbert Halbert Wealth While this may not come as a surprise, many US small businesses that are shuttered right now face a financial disaster. Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly clear that millions of small businesses may not be able to reopen their doors when the economic lockdown ends. Karen Mills, the previous head of the US Small Business Administration (SBA), said on April 4 that “20%, even 30%, of small businesses could fail even in a good scenario.” She warned that without immediate support to buffer the cash flows of stalled businesses waiting for the economy to reopen, it is a matter of days until millions of companies begin to shut their doors permanently – driving unemployment up significantly and sending the economy into a tailspin. Small businesses make up over 90% of US businesses, employ almost half of the American workforce (over 60 million people), create over 60% of new jobs and account for almost half of GDP. If 20%-30% of small businesses go...