Skip to main content

Slow Day?

Not much happening in the markets today. I guess everyone is waiting on the G20 which starts tomorrow, and of course the meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping over the on-going trade wars. Can there be an agreement? My prediction (which is actually a guess), is that they'll come up with some meeting of the minds, which would be in everyone's best interest. But both are tough negotiators. So it will be interesting. 

 Of note was the jobless claims report. 
Initial claims are up for a third straight week, 10,000 higher in the November 24 week to a 234,000 level that is outside high estimates for 228,000. The 4-week average is up a sizable 4,750 to 223,250 which is suddenly the highest reading since July. There are no special factors distorting today's report. 
Also moving higher are continuing claims, up 50,000 in lagging data for the November 17 week with this 4-week average up 20,000 to 1.668 million. This reading is coming up from a 45-year low in late October at 1.635 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 1.2 percent, which is very low but up 1 tenth from a month ago.
Unemployment claims do appear to be shifting higher which doesn't point to another month of outstanding strength for the November employment report.
If you can decipher that, more power to you. All it may mean is the Fed may soften its stance on raising interest rates again. But don't count your chickens yet. 

 On another note, I did a couple of trades in oil futures (Feb 19 contracts) this week, so I'm up about $1,400, so I'll take the rest of the day off. I'll detail these trades this weekend when I do my market wrap.

 Other than that, Wall Street is usually -- emphasis on usually -- quiet on Friday afternoons, so I suggest you find a good book to read. 



Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

What happened when a Trump Supporter Challenged Me About the Wall

Vicky Alvear Schecter wrote in Medium | Poltics on Dec. 27, 2018 using her headline above. I thought it was pretty well written -- at least she made an attempt to keep her liberal bias out of it -- regardless of a few illogical fallacies. 

But she does make an attempt, in an effort to avoid her liberal bias, as she ponders  "...in order not to be accused by bias, I explained that I would only use conservative sources to prove my point."

To me, that's bias to start out with that premise. And I believe her premise is that she is against the wall. That's her stance. But she makes some good points, but some are skewed, even though she attempt to take a "conservative" approach, even by citing some "conservative" sources in her footnotes.

Here's the first problem: if she wanted to avoid bias, why not just stick to the the historical facts as written (when you can find them without bias), and not concern oneself with bias. "I must reject that becau…
Post a Comment
Read more

Weekly wrap for Nov 9

After Thursday and Friday, it might seem the markets are down, but the weekly numbers tell a different story, with the three major indices up for the week. The Nasdaq, with its tech exposure, had the smallest increase. The tech sector is obviously under recent pressure. 

IndexNov 2Nov 9+/-%S&P 5002,723.062,781.01+ 57.95+ 2.12%Nasdaq7,356.997,406.90+ 49.91+ 0.67%DOW 3025,270.8325,989.30+ 718.47+ 2.84%
Over the last 12 months, the Dow is up 10.77 percent, the SP 500 up 7.6 percent, and the Nasdaq up 9.7 percent.  

The weekly chart of the SPY still indicates a long position in the broader market. (The blue line is the 34-week moving average; the red is the 13-week moving average).

















While the U.S. economy still seems to be just fine from most reports, investors seemed to worry about a couple of things on Thursday and Friday: 1) The Eurozone, 2) trade with China, and 3) the Fed and interest rates. Another topic of interest has been oil. 

First, it seems that the Fed has really not indicated …
Post a Comment
Read more

U.S. Top Oil Producer, Thanks to Obama

\ You read that right.

The U.S. is now the largest oil producer in the world, according to the EIA, producing some 15 million BOE per day, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia. (Remember back when Jimmy Carter said in 1979 the answer to our energy problems was to wear a warmer sweater...but you probably don't. He actually said this on national TV).

The United States is the top oil-producing country in the world, with an average of 14.86 million b/d, which accounts for 15.3% of the world's production. This is down from 15.12 million b/d in 2015, but it was enough to land the United States in the No. 1 spot, which it has held for the past four years running. (Source: Investopedia.)

Guess who takes credit for it? Granted, this increase in production began in 2012, but only because of private industry and the fact that the price of oil was at nearly all-time highs. And it dipped in 2016 because of Obama's anti-oil policies! 

But here he is again: 


Former President Barack Obama sure l…
Post a Comment
Read more