Sunday, November 10, 2019

Economics Recap

Better (or higher) than expected:
  • ISM Services Index for Oct: 54.7 vs. 53.5 est
  • Unit Labor Costs for Q3: +3.6% vs. +2.0% est
  • Initial (weekly) Jobless Claims: 211k vs. 216k est
On Target:

Worse (or lower) than expected:
  • Factory Orders for Sep: -0.6% vs. -0.4% est
  • Trade Balance for Sep: -$52.5B vs. -$52.4B est
  • Markit Services PMI: 50.6 vs. 51.0 est
  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for Sep: 7.024M vs. 7.062M est
  • Nonfarm Productivity for Q3: -0.3% vs. +0.9% est
  • Consumer Credit for Sep: $9.5B vs. $15.6B est
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for Nov: 95.7 vs. 96.1 est
  • Wholesale Inventories for Sep: -0.4% vs. -0.1% est
Trade data released this week showed that the US/China trade war resulted in a decline of 4.9% in US imports from China, while US exports to China declined 10%; probably a key factor in why both sides seem to be more willing to try to get a deal signed. While optimism has grown about the phase-one trade deal, President Trump said the US has not agreed to roll back any existing tariffs. Trade advisor Peter Navarro did confirm that postponing the already scheduled December tariffs is a possibility however.

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