Skip to main content

U.S. Economic Perspectives

Small Business Optimism Edges Up 

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up 0.6 points in October to 102.4. While the index peaked at 108.8 in August 2018, it remains elevated by historical standards and suggests that business conditions are still favorable. 

Eight of the ten NFIB components advanced last month, led by plans to increase capex and inventories. Small firms also plan to increase hiring in the next three months, but current job openings eased, touching their lowest level in nearly a year. Part of it was due to the tight labor market conditions, as a near-record high 53% of respondents reported difficulty finding qualified applicants. As a result, worker compensation plans picked up. But firms likely plan to pass that cost increase onto consumers, as price plans also advanced. The earnings trend weakened slightly, but the near-term outlook for real sales growth edged up. 

Labor quality topped the list on small businesses’ most important problems, with 25% of respondents, close to the survey high of 27%, citing it as their biggest problem. 

OECD U.S. CLI Points to Below-Trend Growth
The OECD U.S. Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) fell another 0.1 point in September to 98.8, its lowest level since November 2009, and below 100 for the tenth straight month, as the outlook for growth remained stuck in the below-trend territory. The CLI posted its 17th straight decline, the longest losing streak since April 2016, which was amidst the previous global economic slowdown. On a y/y basis, the CLI was off 1.7 points, near its steepest y/y decline since August 2009. 

Weekly Retail Sales Mixed
The Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales Index rose 1.8% last week, and was up 4.3% y/y, the most since April. But the Redbook same-store chain-store sales edged up only 0.1% in the first week of November, below the target of a 0.9% gain for the full month. Sales were up 5.0% y/y, also below the target of 5.8% y/y. Redbook noted that the official holiday shopping season (between Thanksgiving and Christmas) is six days shorter this year compared to last year, which may have an impact on the sales growth numbers.

Source: Ned Davis Research
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Thanks for the comment. Will get back to you as soon as convenient, if necessary.

Popular posts from this blog

California: A Model for the Rest of the Country, Part 2

Part 1 here . On Leaving the Golden State Guest Post by NicklethroweR . Posted on the Burning Platform. The fabled Ventura Highway is all that separates my artist loft from the beach where surfing first came to the United States. Both my balcony and front patio face the freeway at about eye level and I could easily smack a tennis ball right on to the ever busy 101. Access to the beach and boardwalk is very important to a Tourist Town such as mine and I can see one underpass from my balcony and another underpass from the patio. Further up the street are two pedestrian bridges. Both have been recently remodeled so that people can not use it to kill themselves by leaping down into traffic. The traffic, just like the spice, must flow and the elites that live here do not like to be inconvenienced as they dart about between Malibu and Santa Barbara. Another feature of living where I live would have to be the homeless, the insane and the drug addicts that wander this particular...
Post a Comment
Read more

Factfulness: Ignorance about global trends. The world is actually getting better.

This newsletter was powered by  Thinkr , a smart reading app for the busy-but-curious. For full access to hundreds of titles — including audio — go premium and download the app today. From the layman to the elite, there is widespread ignorance about global trends. Author and international health professor, Hans Rosling, calls Factfulness  “his very last battle in [his] lifelong mission to fight devastating global ignorance.” After years of trying to convince the world that all development indicators point to vast improvements on a global scale, Rosling digs deeper to explore why people systematically have a negative view of where humanity is heading. He identifies a number of deeply human tendencies that predispose us to believe the worst. For every instinct that he names, he offers some rules of thumb for replacing this overdramatic worldview with a “factful” one. In 2017, 20,000 people across fourteen countries were given a multiple-choice quiz to assess basic global literac...
Post a Comment
Read more

Proper way to calculate CAGR using T-Sql for SQL Server

After reading (and attempting the solutions offered in some) several articles about SQL and CAGR,  I have reached the conclusion that none of them would stand testing in a real-world environment. For one thing, the SQL queries offered as examples are overly complex or don't use the correct math for calculating proper CAGR. Since most DBAs don't have an MBA or Finance degree, let me help.  The correct equation for calculating Compound Annual Growth Rate (as a percentage) is:  Some key points about CAGR:  The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is one of the most accurate ways to calculate and determine returns for anything that can rise or fall in value over time. Investors can compare the CAGR of two alternatives to evaluate how well one stock performed against other stocks in a peer group or a market index. The CAGR does not reflect investment risk. You can read a full article about CAGR  here .  To calculate the CAGR for an investment in a language like ...
Post a Comment
Read more